Economic assessment of various levels of improved wheat post head-emergence frost (PHEF) tolerance breeding options: final technical report

Mushtaq, Shahbaz and An-Vo, Duc-Anh ORCID: and Stone, Roger C. and Christopher, Mandy and Chenu, Karine and Christopher, Jack T. and Frederiks, Troy M. and Zheng, Bangyou and Chapman, Scott (2016) Economic assessment of various levels of improved wheat post head-emergence frost (PHEF) tolerance breeding options: final technical report. Technical Report. Grains Research and Development Corporation , Australia. [Report]


Frost, during reproductive developmental stages, especially post head emergence frost (PHEF), can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. Breeding for improved PHEF frost tolerance may allow greater yield to be achieved, by (i) reducing direct frost damage and (ii) sowing crops earlier to reduce risks of late-season drought and or heat stress. This paper provides an economic feasibility analysis of conventional and genetically modified (GM) PHEF tolerant wheat variety breeding options.
The APSIM wheat model, with a phenology gene-based module, was employed to simulate direct and indirect yield benefits for various level of improved frost tolerance. The economic model considered optimal profit, based on sowing window and nitrogen use, rather than achieving maximum yield, when
calculating the economics of PHEF breeding options.

The results reveal that PHEF tolerant varieties, both conventional and GM, would lead to a significant
increase in economic benefits through reduction in direct damage and an increase in yield through early sowing. The economic benefits of up to $4,841million and $4,826 could be realised from breeding conventional PHEF tolerant lines and GM PHEF tolerant if useful genetic variation can be
found. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the benefits are particularly sensitive to the increase in fixed
costs, discount rate, and delay in variety release. However, the investment still remains viable for
most tested scenarios. Based on comparative economic benefits, for both conventional and GM PHEF tolerant varieties, if breeders were able to develop PHEF tolerant varieties that could withstand cold temperatures –4 °C below the current damage threshold using conventional methods, instead of breeding fully frost tolerant GM varieties, the investment on the PHEF tolerant breeding program would be highly attractive.

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Item Type: Report (Technical Report)
Item Status: Live Archive
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2018 02:19
Last Modified: 14 Jan 2019 03:17
Uncontrolled Keywords: economic assessment, benefit cost analysis, frost, crop modelling, wheat, APSIM, Australia
Fields of Research (2008): 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140201 Agricultural Economics
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
Fields of Research (2020): 38 ECONOMICS > 3801 Applied economics > 380101 Agricultural economics
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300207 Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8205 Winter Grains and Oilseeds > 820507 Wheat

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