Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change

Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid and Alam, Khorshed ORCID: and Gow, Jeff ORCID: (2019) Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 34 (4). pp. 304-312. ISSN 1742-1705


This paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48 year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with publisher's copyright policy. First published online 27 September 2017. Print version published in 2019.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts - School of Commerce (1 Jul 2013 - 17 Jan 2021)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Institute for Resilient Regions - Rural Economies Centre of Excellence (1 Aug 2018 -)
Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2018 04:01
Last Modified: 23 Mar 2022 02:12
Uncontrolled Keywords: Aman rice; Bangladesh; climate change; panel estimation
Fields of Research (2008): 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140201 Agricultural Economics
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140304 Panel Data Analysis
14 Economics > 1401 Economic Theory > 140104 Microeconomic Theory
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070301 Agro-ecosystem Functionand Prediction
Fields of Research (2020): 38 ECONOMICS > 3801 Applied economics > 380101 Agricultural economics
38 ECONOMICS > 3802 Econometrics > 380204 Panel data analysis
38 ECONOMICS > 3803 Economic theory > 380304 Microeconomic theory
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3004 Crop and pasture production > 300402 Agro-ecosystem function and prediction
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9102 Microeconomics > 910210 Production
B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9199 Other Economic Framework > 919999 Economic Framework not elsewhere classified
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
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