Rainfall pattern forecasting using novel hybrid intelligent model based ANFIS-FFA

Yaseen, Zaher Mundher and Ghareb, Mazen Ismaeel and Ebtehaj, Isa and Bonakdari, Hossein and Siddique, Ridwan and Heddam, Sali and Yusif, Ali A. and Deo, Ravinesh (2017) Rainfall pattern forecasting using novel hybrid intelligent model based ANFIS-FFA. Water Resources Management. ISSN 0920-4741

Abstract

In this study, a new hybrid model integrated adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with Firefly Optimization algorithm (ANFIS-FFA), is proposed for forecasting monthly rainfall with one-month lead time. The proposed ANFIS-FFA model is compared with standard ANFIS model, achieved using predictor-predictand data from the Pahang river catchment located in the Malaysian Peninsular. To develop the predictive models, a total of fifteen years of data were selected, split into nine years for training and six years for testing the accuracy of the proposed ANFIS-FFA model. To attain optimal models, several input
combinations of antecedents’ rainfall data were used as predictor variables with sixteen different model combination considered for rainfall prediction. The performances of ANFIS-FFA models were evaluated using five statistical indices: the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Willmott’s Index (WI), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results attained show that, the ANFIS-FFA model performed better than the standard ANFIS model, with high values of R2, NSE and WI and low values of RMSE and MAE. In test phase, the monthly rainfall predictions using ANFIS-FFA yielded R2, NSE and WI of about 0.999, 0.998 and 0.999, respectively, while the RMSE and MAE values were found to be about 0.272 mm and 0.133 mm, respectively. It was also evident that the performances of the ANFIS-FFA and ANFIS models were very much governed by the input data size where the ANFIS-FFA model resulted in an increase in the value of R2, NSE and WI from 0.463, 0.207 and 0.548, using only one antecedent month of data as an input (t-1), to almost 0.999, 0.998 and 0.999, respectively, using five antecedent months of predictor data (t-1, t-2, t-3, t-6, t-12, t-24). We ascertain that the ANFIS-FFA is a prudent modelling approach that could be adopted for the simulation of monthly rainfall in the present study region.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to ArticleFirst version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2017 01:51
Last Modified: 27 Apr 2018 01:02
Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall forecasting; tropical environment; stochastic pattern; hybrid ANFIS-FFA model
Fields of Research : 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1797-0
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/33114

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