Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

Tolentino, Pamela Louise M. and Poortinga, Ate and Kanamaru, Hideki and Keesstra, Saskia and Maroulis, Jerry and David, Carlos Primo C. and Ritsema, Coen J. (2016) Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines. PLoS One, 11 (10). pp. 1-14.

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Abstract

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural
provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river
flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century).
Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows
and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase
in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published version made available in accordance with Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0.
Faculty / Department / School: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 27 Jan 2017 05:10
Last Modified: 04 Jul 2017 01:51
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; hydrological schemes; Philippines
Fields of Research : 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring
09 Engineering > 0905 Civil Engineering > 090509 Water Resources Engineering
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163941
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/30416

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