Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

Kamruzzaman, Md. and Kabir, Md Enamul and Rahman, A. T. M. Sakiur and Jahan, Chowdhury Sarwar and Mazumder, Quamrul Hasan and Rahman, M. Sayedur (2016) Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability. ISSN 1387-585X


The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Published online 20 Dec 2016. Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2017 05:21
Last Modified: 19 Jan 2018 00:13
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; drought hazards and vulnerability; western part of Bangladesh
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s10668-016-9898-0

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