Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia

Peck, Matthew and Ghahramani, Afshin (2016) Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia. In: Climate Adaptation 2016: Change, Challenge, Opportunity, 5-7 July 2016, Adelaide, Australia.

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Abstract

It is of major concern that climate change will be associated with an increase in extreme events, in recent years there are evidences of an increase in the frequency and intensity of such events. To confirm this, a trend analysis of historical extreme events was undertaken using case studies. We also examined likely impact of climate extremes on wheat production in the near future (2030). Extreme climate events were determined using Climate Extreme Indices (CEIs) adapted from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI). Biophysical examination of wheat productivity was conducted through applying a Global Climate Model (GCM) data set projected for 1991-2010, downscaled by a quantile matching (QM), to APSIM and comparing the output with simulated historical production. Changes to the occurrence and intensity of extreme climatic events have occurred when evaluating the output data to the defined CEIs. An increase in extreme maximum temperatures, a decrease in minimum temperatures and an increase in rainfall variability have been observed in the last decade. Extreme event intensity is expected to decrease as frequency increases in South-West, Western Australia. Wheat yield at a relatively high rainfall site (Katanning, WA) projected to return higher yield compared to the baseline due to decreasing extreme event intensity projected for 2030 (RCP: 8.5, GCM: GFDL-CM3, downscaled by QM). However, the annual wheat yield trends for both simulations, historical and projected climate for 2030, are expected to decrease annually through time as a result of the changing intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Abstract only published in Conference Proceedings.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 08 Nov 2016 23:59
Last Modified: 10 Jul 2017 03:13
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change, extreme climate events, wheat productivity, trend, intensity, frequency
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070103 Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/29975

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