Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate

Duku, Confidence and Sparks, Adam H. and Zwart, Sander J. (2016) Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 135 (3). pp. 569-583. ISSN 0165-0009

Abstract

Rice is the most rapidly growing staple food in Africa and although rice produc- tion is steadily increasing, the consumption is still out-pacing the production. In Tanzania, two important diseases in rice production are leaf blast caused by Magnaporthe oryzae and bacterial leaf blight caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. The objective of this study was to quantify rice yield losses due to these two important diseases under a changing cli- mate. We found that bacterial leaf blight is predicted to increase causing greater losses than leaf blast in the future, with losses due to leaf blast declining. The results of this study indi- cate that the effects of climate change on plant disease can not only be expected to be uneven across diseases but also across geographies, as in some geographic areas losses increase but decrease in others for the same disease.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version, in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 17 Oct 2016 00:31
Last Modified: 17 Oct 2016 00:31
Uncontrolled Keywords: rice; Tanzania; bacterial leaf blight; leaf blast; climate change
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
06 Biological Sciences > 0607 Plant Biology > 060704 Plant Pathology
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
06 Biological Sciences > 0699 Other Biological Sciences > 069902 Global Change Biology
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1580-2
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/29828

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