Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight

Sparks, Adam H. and Forbes, Gregory A. and Hijmans, Robert J. and Garrett, Karen A. (2014) Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight. Global Change Biology, 20 (12). pp. 3621-3631. ISSN 1354-1013


Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000–2019, 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 09 Oct 2016 23:02
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2016 23:49
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change, food security, Phytophthora infestans, plant disease management, plant pathology, potato late blight
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling
06 Biological Sciences > 0607 Plant Biology > 060704 Plant Pathology
06 Biological Sciences > 0699 Other Biological Sciences > 069902 Global Change Biology
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12587

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