Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease

Garrett, K. A. and Forbes, G. A. and Savary, S. and Skelsey, P. and Sparks, A. H. ORCID: and Valdivia, C. and van Bruggen, A. H. C. and Willocquet, L. and Djurle, A. and Duveiller, E. and Eckersten, H. and Pande, S. and Vera Cruz, C. and Yuen, J. (2011) Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathology, 60 (1). pp. 15-30. ISSN 0032-0862


The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that interact with plants, including plant diseases, animal herbivores, and weeds. We present a framework for analysis of complexity in climate-change effects mediated by plant disease. This frame- work can support evaluation of the level of model complexity likely to be required for analysing climate-change impacts mediated by disease. Our analysis incorporates consideration of the following set of questions for a particular host, patho- gen, host–pathogen combination, or geographic region. 1. Are multiple biological interactions important? 2. Are there envi- ronmental thresholds for population responses? 3. Are there indirect effects of global change factors on disease development? 4. Are spatial components of epidemic processes affected by climate? 5. Are there feedback loops for manage- ment? 6. Are networks for intervention technologies slower than epidemic networks? 7. Are there effects of plant disease on multiple ecosystem services? 8. Are there feedback loops from plant disease to climate change? Evaluation of these questions will help in gauging system complexity, as illustrated for fusarium head blight and potato late blight. In practice, it may be necessary to expand models to include more components, identify those components that are the most important, and syn- thesize such models to include the optimal level of complexity for planning and research prioritization.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Files associated with this record cannot be displayed.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 04 Oct 2016 00:27
Last Modified: 27 Sep 2019 05:00
Uncontrolled Keywords: cereal head blight, disease risk, ecosystem services, fusarium graminearum, potato late blight, Phytophthora infestans
Fields of Research (2008): 06 Biological Sciences > 0607 Plant Biology > 060704 Plant Pathology
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
05 Environmental Sciences > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Fields of Research (2020): 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3108 Plant biology > 310805 Plant pathology
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3004 Crop and pasture production > 300409 Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation
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