Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Williams, Allyson and White, Neil and Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Cockfield, Geoff and Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis (2015) Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change. Climatic Change, 129 (1-2). pp. 183-196. ISSN 0165-0009

Abstract

The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17%. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9% by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6% in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50% to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Institute for Agriculture and the Environment
Date Deposited: 12 May 2016 23:40
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2017 23:41
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; cotton production; APSIM
Fields of Research : 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070103 Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070302 Agronomy
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820301 Cotton
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/29049

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