Decomposition analysis to examine Australia's 2030 GHGs emissions target: how hard will it be to achieve?

Shahiduzzaman, Md and Layton, Allan (2015) Decomposition analysis to examine Australia's 2030 GHGs emissions target: how hard will it be to achieve? Economic Analysis and Policy, 48. pp. 25-34. ISSN 0313-5926


The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve
this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy
efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from
these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Division of Academic Services - No Department
Date Deposited: 12 May 2016 23:39
Last Modified: 17 May 2016 23:12
Uncontrolled Keywords: GHGs emissions; decomposition analysis; Australia
Fields of Research : 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960399 Climate and Climate Change not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2015.10.003

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