Kouadio, Louis 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9669-7807 and Stone, Roger and Tixier, Philippe and Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Marcussen, Torben
(2015)
Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale.
In: Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015 : Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015), 16-18 Nov 2015, Brisbane, Australia.
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Abstract
The Vietnamese coffee industry is the world's second largest producer of coffee beans. The industry is significantly influenced by seasonal climate variations, water shortages, and extreme climatic events, especially drought. Given a 15% expected increase in global coffee demand and the potential adverse effects of projected climate variability, the success of the Vietnamese coffee industry depends heavily on minimising the risks along the supply chain and capitalising on potential opportunities. Advances in seasonal climate forecasts, when integrated with crop production systems, can greatly improve industry preparedness and productivity. We present the progress on the development of a ‘Robusta variety' coffee production model, an integrated forecasting system, which aims to provide coffee production estimate based on simulating coffee growth biophysical processes and seasonal climate forecast systems. The model uses daily values (such as daily minimum and maximum temperatures, solar radiation, and rainfall) and simulates the growth of the coffee tree (e.g. biomass) and the production of green beans. The initial simulated results are encouraging, however, while the model successfully picks up the climatic variability, the precision is not yet outstanding. Further refinement and improvement of the parametrization are ongoing to provide more reliable and comprehensive outputs at different lead times. While additional work is yet to be done the preliminary results look promising and show that seasonal climate and crop forecasting offers substantial benefits to coffee growers and industry through increased profitability, better logistical arrangements and preparedness for extreme events such as floods and droughts.
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