Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea

Kim, Do-Woo and Deo, Ravinesh C. and Chung, Jea-Hak and Lee, Jong-Seol (2016) Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea. Natural Hazards, 80 (1). pp. 623-637. ISSN 0921-030X

Abstract

Heat waves associated with climate change are a significant future concern. Although deaths from heat disorders are a direct effect of heat wave incidences, only a few studies have addressed the causal factors between heat wave incidences and deaths from heat disorder. This study applies regression analysis to the time series data in order to deduce the causal factors that affect the number of deaths from heat disorders (NDHD) in Korea using observational dataset from 1994–2012. The duration of a heat wave and the age of the population are highly correlated with the magnitude of the NDHD. Based on this
correlation we also analyze heat wave projections to the climate change scenarios produced using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and to the single aging population scenario till 2060. The magnitude of the NDHD is expected to elevate by approximately fivefold under the RCP4.5 and 7.2-fold under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the current baseline value (&23 people per summer). Of greater concern is that the steady death rate increase is expected to be intercepted by the more severe events in future compared to the present period. Under both RCP scenarios considered, the extreme cases are projected to eventuate around the 2050s with approximately 250 deaths. We find that in spite of the greenhouse gas policy proposed to meet reductions under the RCP 4.5 scenario; serious heat wave damage in terms of human mortality may still be unavoidable in Korea.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: This paper represents USQ's collaboration with Korean Disaster Management Institute. Permanent restricted access to Published version in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2015 06:10
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2016 03:52
Uncontrolled Keywords: heat waves projection in Korea; RCP 4.5 and 8.5; heat deaths; heat wave trends
Fields of Research : 05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040604 Natural Hazards
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring
01 Mathematical Sciences > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010299 Applied Mathematics not elsewhere classified
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040103 Atmospheric Radiation
Socio-Economic Objective: E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960302 Climate Change Mitigation Strategies
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9610 Natural Hazards > 961099 Natural Hazards not elsewhere classified
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models
E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences
E Expanding Knowledge > 97 Expanding Knowledge > 970104 Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1987-0
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/27796

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