Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia

Everingham, Y. L. and Muchow, R. C. and Stone, R. C. and Coomans, D. H. (2003) Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 23 (10). pp. 1211-1218. ISSN 0899-8418


Climate is a key driver of sugarcane productivity. Advance knowledge of the likely climate and its impact on production could add value to production, harvest and marketing efforts. A climate forecast system that incorporates five patterns or phases of the southern oscillation index is used to assess whether an early indication of sugarcane yield anomalies in Australia can be produced. results indicate that, for certain sugarcane growing regions, the climate forecast systems offers better estimates of the direction of the anomaly when compared with no climate forecast system. Improved results of the direction of the yield anomaly can be obtained some 7 months prior to the commencement of harvest. This information can then be used by marketers to plan better the customer allocations, shipping schedules and storage requirements for the next season. Advance knowledge of the crop size can also assist industry decisons makers in scheduling when the harvest season should commence. Further research is required to determine if other climatic indices, such as sea-surface temperatures, can improve yield estimation. Consideration also needs to be given to determining whether the magnitude and direction of the yield anomaly can be more accurately forecasted with varying lead times.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to paper due to publisher copyright restrictions.
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2007 01:13
Last Modified: 21 Nov 2013 01:16
Uncontrolled Keywords: SOI; climate; forecast; sugarcane; yield; Australia; Monte Carlo
Fields of Research : 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070301 Agro-ecosystem Functionand Prediction
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1002/joc.920

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