Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela (2017) Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 28 (2). pp. 150-164. ISSN 1024-2694

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Abstract

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory. We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. Prospect theory orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of 'trigger points' and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2017 Taylor & Francis. Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Permanent restricted access to Published version due to publisher copyright policy.
Faculty / Department / School: Current - Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts - School of Commerce
Date Deposited: 13 May 2015 03:48
Last Modified: 28 Sep 2018 04:22
Uncontrolled Keywords: terrorist choice; prospect theory; stochastic dominance; attack methods; trigger points; fatalities
Fields of Research : 01 Mathematical Sciences > 0104 Statistics > 010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling
16 Studies in Human Society > 1606 Political Science > 160604 Defence Studies
14 Economics > 1401 Economic Theory > 140104 Microeconomic Theory
Socio-Economic Objective: A Defence > 81 Defence > 8101 Defence > 810107 National Security
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/27220

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