Modelling water demand and trade on the Murray and lower Darling rivers

Alam, Md Jahangir and Bethune, Matthew and Townsend, Phil and Close, Andy (2014) Modelling water demand and trade on the Murray and lower Darling rivers. In: 17th International River Symposium 2014: Excellence Collaboration Integration, 15-18 Sep 2014, Canberra, Australia.

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The Murray–Darling Basin is one of the largest river systems in the world. It supports a large community and is ecologically diverse. The Basin Plan is being implemented to restore the balance between consumptive uses and environmental health in the Basin. The socio-economic implications are a critical consideration in any change to this balance. Under the Basin Plan, considerable effort was invested into understanding how irrigation communities will respond under different water availability/management scenarios. This paper builds on this understanding by enhancing modelling approaches used in water resource planning to represent how irrigator's behaviour may change in response to new water management rules.
The analysis uses a new demand model in the Source IMS river modelling platform. The amount of water available to an irrigator is the key modelled decision variable, impacting on crop areas and crop mix. The available water is dependent on carryover from last year, allocated water, planned trade of allocation and planned carryover into the next irrigation season. Prior to making a planting decision, the irrigator will review their water portfolio and make a decision on how much water they plan to trade (in or out) and how much water they plan to carry-over into the next season. The resulting available water is then used to make a decision on what area they will plant to different crop types each year. This logic represents the trading of water to support urban and permanent horticultural plantings in low allocation years. Conversely, allocation is traded to increase the area of annual cropping systems in years of high water availability. The irrigators water portfolio is reviewed as the season progresses. If they are likely to run out of water, a decision is made to either reduce irrigation intensity (ie go into survival mode), cut back the irrigated area or to buy additional water. Any surplus water could be sold. The approach is tested against available land use, water use and trade data on the Murray and Lower Darling rivers.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: This publication is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purposes of study, research, or review, but is subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgment of the source.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Civil Engineering and Surveying (1 Jul 2013 -)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Civil Engineering and Surveying (1 Jul 2013 -)
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2015 04:11
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2017 00:45
Uncontrolled Keywords: demand modelling; source IMS; water diversion; Murray River; lower Darling River; basin plan
Fields of Research (2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040608 Surfacewater Hydrology
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050209 Natural Resource Management
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0799 Other Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 079901 Agricultural Hydrology (Drainage, Flooding, Irrigation, Quality, etc.)
Fields of Research (2020): 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3707 Hydrology > 370704 Surface water hydrology
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410406 Natural resource management
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300201 Agricultural hydrology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960913 Water Allocation and Quantification

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