Managing pest species under climate change: risks and opportunities

Reardon-Smith, Kathryn M. and Stone, Roger C. and Le Brocque, Andrew F. (2012) Managing pest species under climate change: risks and opportunities. In: 4th Queensland Pest Animal Symposium, 30 Jul - 2 Aug 2012, Caloundra, Queensland.

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Abstract

Human activity is driving significant changes in global and regional climate systems through the enhanced greenhouse effect (IPCC 2007). Global climate models predict that this anthropogenic forcing will alter both mean climate parameters and the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events (e.g. heat waves, severe storm events and droughts). Such changes may have significant destabilizing effects, decoupling existing relationships between species, altering species distributions and challenging current management regimes. However, they may also provide significant management opportunities.
Many pest species are expected to expand their geographical range in a warmer, more extreme, climate. Despite this, there is likely to be great variation both in pest species responses to changing climatic conditions and impacts on ecological and production systems, and in the effectiveness of current pest management strategies. This implies a need for ongoing monitoring and assessment of pest species responses to environmental change and management at local and regional scales. It also indicates a need for research aimed at identifying potential tipping points (or critical thresholds) in relation to significant meteorological events. This presentation will focus on the role of risk assessment in decision-making for pest species management under uncertainty. Probabilistic modelling approaches, such as Bayesian Belief networks, provide a valuable adjunct to monitoring and evaluation programs. They facilitate the synthesis of current knowledge (including expert opinion), highlight critical knowledge gaps, and provide a basis for both targeted research and adaptive management. Integrated modelling to predict invasive species response to management under variable climatic conditions can be used to identify key opportunities for management which will contribute disproportionately to effective pest species control.
Pest species management programs under future climatic regimes are likely to require the capacity for more adaptive and strategic response, and will need to be supported by flexible investment strategies which enable timely (adaptive) responses at critical periods.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Keynote)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: No evidence of copyright restrictions preventing display of Submitted Version.
Faculty / Department / School: No Faculty
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2016 02:22
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2017 00:24
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change, climate extremes, pest species, environmental risk, management opportunities, scenario modelling
Fields of Research : 05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050203 Environmental Education and Extension
05 Environmental Sciences > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050103 Invasive Species Ecology
05 Environmental Sciences > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species > 960403 Control of Animal Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species in Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Environments
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/26898

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