Development of weather-based predictive models for Fusarium head blight and Deoxynivalenol accumulation for spring malting barley

Bondalapati, K. D. and Stein, J. .M and Neate, S. M. and Halley, S. H. and Osborne, L. E. and Hollingsworth, C. R. (2012) Development of weather-based predictive models for Fusarium head blight and Deoxynivalenol accumulation for spring malting barley. Plant Disease, 96 (5). pp. 673-680. ISSN 0191-2917

Abstract

The associations between Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Gibberella zeae, and deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation in spring malting barley (Hordeum vulgare) and hourly weather conditions predictive of DON accumulation were examined using data from six growing seasons in the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Three commonly grown cultivars were planted throughout the region, and FHB disease and DON concentration were recorded. Nine predictor variables were calculated using hourly temperature and relative humidity during the 10 days preceding full head spike emergence. Simple logistic regression models were developed using these predictor variables based on a binary threshold for DON of 0.5 mg/kg. Four of the nine models had sensitivity greater than 80%, and specificity of these models ranged from 67 to 84% (n = 150). The most useful predictor was the joint effect of average hourly temperature and a weighted duration of uninterrupted hours (h) with relative humidity greater than or equal to 90%. The results of this study confirm that FHB incidence is significantly associated with DON accumulation in the grain and that weather conditions prior to full head emergence could be used to accurately predict the risk of economically significant DON accumulation for spring malting barley.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: © 2012 The American Phytopathological Society. Published version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Engineering and Surveying - Department of Agricultural, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2014 02:48
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2018 01:11
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fusarium; Gibberella zeae; Hordeum vulgare; United States; barley diseases; weather conditions; growing season
Fields of Research : 06 Biological Sciences > 0607 Plant Biology > 060704 Plant Pathology
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070305 Crop and Pasture Improvement (Selection and Breeding)
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
Socio-Economic Objective: B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8205 Winter Grains and Oilseeds > 820501 Barley
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1094/PDIS-05-11-0389
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/25188

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