Plausible futures for regional development and structural adjustment under climate change: a case of the rice industry in Australia

Mushtaq, S. and Cockfield, G. and White, N. and Jakeman, G. (2012) Plausible futures for regional development and structural adjustment under climate change: a case of the rice industry in Australia. In: 2nd Practical Responses to Climate Change National Conference: Water and Climate: Policy Implementation Challenges (PRCC 2012), 1-3 May 2012, Canberra, Austalia.


Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. It is envisaged that this relocation of the rice industry to north could offset decreases in the irrigated area and output of the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) as a result of decreased inflows and buybacks of environmental water under the Murray Darling Basin Plan. This paper provides information to support decisions on the incremental and transformational changes by considering the net effects of shifting agricultural production from southern rice areas (Riverina) to sugar dominated areas in northern Queensland (Burdekin) using dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.
Three rice relocation scenarios under two time periods, 2030 and 2070, are considered. The results demonstrate that in all cases there is a net reduction in real economic output and real income, although a rice-sugarcane rotation in the Burdekin partly offsets some of the negative impact. We conclude that there is unlikely to be a rapid and spontaneous increase in rice production in the north, because of a lack of infrastructure, wariness in relation to the agronomic issues and the opportunity cost of turning away from sugar. However, even if such relocations start to occur, strong government support would be crucial to sustaining a northern rice industry.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to published version due to publisher copyright policy.(This is a poster paper).
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - USQ Other
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Current - USQ Other
Date Deposited: 03 Feb 2013 02:19
Last Modified: 26 Jun 2017 01:52
Uncontrolled Keywords: water management; irrigation; hydrology; Australia; Murray-Darling basin; rice growing; buy back
Fields of Research (2008): 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070199 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management not elsewhere classified
05 Environmental Sciences > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Fields of Research (2020): 38 ECONOMICS > 3801 Applied economics > 380105 Environment and resource economics
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300299 Agriculture, land and farm management not elsewhere classified
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
B Economic Development > 82 Plant Production and Plant Primary Products > 8204 Summer Grains and Oilseeds > 820402 Rice

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