Mushtaq, S. and Cockfield, G. and White, N. and Jakeman, G. (2012) Plausible futures for regional development and structural adjustment under climate change: a case of the rice industry in Australia. In: 2nd Practical Responses to Climate Change National Conference: Water and Climate: Policy Implementation Challenges (PRCC 2012), 1-3 May 2012, Canberra, Austalia.
Abstract
Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. It is envisaged that this relocation of the rice industry to north could offset decreases in the irrigated area and output of the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) as a result of decreased inflows and buybacks of environmental water under the Murray Darling Basin Plan. This paper provides information to support decisions on the incremental and transformational changes by considering the net effects of shifting agricultural production from southern rice areas (Riverina) to sugar dominated areas in northern Queensland (Burdekin) using dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.
Three rice relocation scenarios under two time periods, 2030 and 2070, are considered. The results demonstrate that in all cases there is a net reduction in real economic output and real income, although a rice-sugarcane rotation in the Burdekin partly offsets some of the negative impact. We conclude that there is unlikely to be a rapid and spontaneous increase in rice production in the north, because of a lack of infrastructure, wariness in relation to the agronomic issues and the opportunity cost of turning away from sugar. However, even if such relocations start to occur, strong government support would be crucial to sustaining a northern rice industry.
|
Statistics for this ePrint Item |
Actions (login required)
 |
Archive Repository Staff Only |