Cottrill, Andrew and Ribbe, Joachim (2007) Queensland rainfall variability in IPCC AR4 model runs. In: 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 5-8 February 2007, Adelaide, Australia.
The severe drought that has gripped much of eastern Australia, covering the coastal and inland parts of southern-central Queensland and New South Wales, since mid 1999, is one of the worst since detailed rainfall records started over 115 years ago.
It is uncertain how much rainfall changes are related to pattern of natural multi-decadal variability or are already indicators of long-term climatic changes in north eastern Australia.
Analyses of recent rainfall observations indicate a late drying trend in the 20th century with increasing temperatures. In order to investigate observed trends, data from a total of about twenty-one global climate models used by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC AR4 due for publication in 2007) is being analysed focusing upon northeast Australia. The simulated data are being compared to observational climatological data. Particular emphasis is upon the model’s ability to represent 20th century climate in this part of the world which will place confidence upon simulated and observed pattern of decadal/multi-decadal variability.
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|Item Type:||Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Speech)|
|Item Status:||Live Archive|
|Additional Information:||Speech presentation. Conference publication consists of only the abstracts of papers presented at the conference. Abstract only posted here. No evidence of copyright restrictions on web site.|
|Faculty / Department / School:||Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences|
|Date Deposited:||11 Oct 2007 00:53|
|Last Modified:||02 Jul 2013 22:41|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||rainfall, Queensland, drought, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate models, climate variability, climate change|
|Fields of Research :||04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
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