Dating the 'world business cycle'

Banerji, Anirvan and Layton, Allan P. and Achuthan, Lakshman (2012) Dating the 'world business cycle'. Applied Economics, 44 (16). pp. 2051-2063. ISSN 0003-6846


By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international – or 'world' – recession. But what exactly is a
'synchronized world recession'? This article proposes a practical definition of a 'synchronized world recession' and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a 'world business cycle chronology'. Further, using a constructed 'world coincident index of economic indicators' and an associated 'world leading index of economic indicators', this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Available online: 08 Apr 2011. Permanent restricted access to published version due to publisher copyright policy.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Business and Law - No Department (1 Jan 2011 - 30 Jun 2013)
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: Historic - Faculty of Business and Law - No Department (1 Jan 2011 - 30 Jun 2013)
Date Deposited: 10 Mar 2012 09:09
Last Modified: 22 Jun 2018 02:29
Uncontrolled Keywords: world business cycle; synchronisation; business cycle dating; forecasting business cycles; synchronized international recession
Fields of Research (2008): 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services > 1503 Business and Management > 150308 International Business
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140202 Economic Development and Growth
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting
Fields of Research (2020): 35 COMMERCE, MANAGEMENT, TOURISM AND SERVICES > 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour > 350706 International business
44 HUMAN SOCIETY > 4404 Development studies > 440499 Development studies not elsewhere classified
38 ECONOMICS > 3802 Econometrics > 380203 Economic models and forecasting
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9102 Microeconomics > 910206 Market-Based Mechanisms
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