An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia

Stone, Roger C. and Marcussen, Torben and Mushtaq, Shahbaz (2010) An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia. In: American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting, 13-17 Dec 2010, San Francisco, USA.

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Abstract

The combination of climate variability and long-term climate change is having and will have potentially large impacts on rainfall and river flows in regional Australia. However, regional climatic factors such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation may also exacerbate or otherwise ameliorate the impact of the global climatic system in the regional Australia, creating uncertainties. In order to accommodate for regional influences, therefore reducing uncertainties, we have adopted ‘demerit points approach’ developed by Suppiah et al. (2007) to select the appropriate climate models that are both relevant for a geographical region, especially in their ability to reproduce aspects of the regions key climatic ‘drivers’. The ‘demerit points approach’ provides one point for a root mean square error greater than two or a pattern correlation less than 0.8 in any given season. In this, there are a high number of demerit points allocated for models that do not reproduce observed rainfall and temperature patterns in regional Australia as well as a total appraisal of the allocation of demerit points across a wider range of indicators. The ‘demerit point approach’ has been successfully applied to regional Australia, mainly in south east Queensland and Tasmania. Overall, the models output suggest considerable decrease in autumn/winter/spring rainfall and runoff, an annual decline in rainfall and runoff. However, models suggest potential for an increase in core summer rainfall and an increase in December-March runoff, especially in the southern regions of Queensland.

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Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed:	Yes
Item Status:	Live Archive
Additional Information:	This is a refereed poster presentation. No evidence of copyright restrictions.
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre:	Current - USQ Other
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre:	Current - USQ Other
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2011 10:32
Last Modified:	10 Sep 2013 04:39
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate models; climate change; El Nino; Southern Oscillation Index; rainfall; river flows; Australia
Fields of Research (2008):	07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070108 Sustainable Agricultural Development 04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040608 Surfacewater Hydrology 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Fields of Research (2020):	30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management > 300210 Sustainable agricultural development 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3707 Hydrology > 370704 Surface water hydrology 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008):	D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models
URI:	http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/18698

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