Cai, W. and Sullivan, A. and Cowan, T. and Ribbe, J. and Shi, G. (2011) Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (3). pp. 1-5. ISSN 0094-8276
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Abstract
A multi-model average shows that 21st century warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) is slower than that to the west, but with strong inter-model variations. Is the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) relevant to the inter-model variations? We demonstrate that inter-model variations of this future warming are consistent with how well models simulate historical IOD properties; models with a stronger IOD amplitude systematically produce a slower eastern IO warming rate with greater future rainfall changes in IOD-affected regions. These models also produce a stronger Bjerknes-like positive feedback, involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs), winds and a shoaling thermocline in the eastern IO. As warming proceeds, models with a stronger positive feedback induce a greater response to warming-induced changes such as easterly trends associated with the Walker circulation, generating a smaller warming in the eastern IO. Simulating the present-day IOD properties is, therefore, a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections.
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Item Type: | Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C) |
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Refereed: | Yes |
Item Status: | Live Archive |
Additional Information: | Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. |
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: | Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013) |
Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: | Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences (Up to 30 Jun 2013) |
Date Deposited: | 25 Jan 2011 06:14 |
Last Modified: | 11 Sep 2014 05:15 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | climate change; climate models; rainfall; Indian Ocean; Walker circulation; global warming |
Fields of Research (2008): | 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology 08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling |
Socio-Economic Objectives (2008): | D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models |
Identification Number or DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242 |
URI: | http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/18152 |
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