Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

Donald, Alexis and Meinke, Holger and Power, Brendan and Maia, Aline de H. N. and Wheeler, Matthew and Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil (2006) Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (9). L09704. ISSN 0094-8276

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The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2007 00:34
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 22:36
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate variability; forecasting; Madden Julian Oscillation; tropical climatology; farming systems; agriculture
Fields of Research : 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
04 Earth Sciences > 0404 Geophysics > 040499 Geophysics not elsewhere classified
Socio-Economic Objective: D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1029/2005GL025155

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