Guided weapon danger area generation: implementing a probabilistic approach

Abstract

In this paper, we outline an approach for the generation of guided weapon danger area safety traces via probabilistic means. This approach involves the calculation of a ground impact distribution database for each weapon via Monte Carlo simulations performed on a ‘farm’ of computers. A safety trace specific to a user-defined firing envelope is then generated. The safety trace is a probability density function of the ground impacts for the specified firing parameters. We are currently building a two-part system to provide this capability to the Australian Department of Defence for weapon test and evaluation purposes. The first part is a data preparation process that weapon experts can use to produce the weapon-specific ground impact distribution databases. The second part of the system is a software tool intended for operational users and range managers. This tool references the weapon database to generate a Weapon Danger Area Safety Trace for a specific firing envelope. We intend that the system be accepted for general use by the Department of Defence; hence, we are building it in accordance with departmental quality assurance requirements for complex aerospace systems.