Thurlow, James and Gow, Jeff and George, Gavin (2009) HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: an integrated survey, demographic and economy-wide analysis. Journal of the International AIDS Society, 12 (18).
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Background: This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal province and the rest of South Africa. Methods: We extended previous studies by employing: an integrated analytical framework that combined firm surveys of workers' HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produced both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economy-wide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macromicroeconomic assessment. Results: Results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-run rate of technical change. However, impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimises the economic costs of increased mortality. By contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher income households despite lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion: We conclude that the increase in economic growth that results from addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure placed on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher income households. Our findings reveal the substantial burden that HIV/AIDS places on future economic development in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa, and confirms the need for policies to curb the economic costs of the pandemic
|Item Type:||Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)|
|Additional Information:||Authors retain copyright. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||HIV; AIDS; economic impact; KwaZulu-Natal province; South Africa|
320000 Medical and Health Sciences > 329900 Other Medical and Health Sciences > 329999 Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified
|Depositing User:||Dr Jeffrey Gow|
|Date Deposited:||02 Nov 2009 05:26|
|Last Modified:||15 Aug 2013 01:28|
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