HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: an integrated survey, demographic and economy-wide analysis

Thurlow, James and Gow, Jeff and George, Gavin (2009) HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: an integrated survey, demographic and economy-wide analysis. Journal of the International AIDS Society, 12 (18).

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Abstract

Background: This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal province and the rest of South Africa. Methods: We extended previous studies by employing: an integrated analytical framework that combined firm surveys of workers' HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produced both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economy-wide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macromicroeconomic assessment. Results: Results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-run rate of technical change. However, impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimises the economic costs of increased mortality. By contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher income households despite lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion: We conclude that the increase in economic growth that results from addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure placed on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher income households. Our findings reveal the substantial burden that HIV/AIDS places on future economic development in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa, and confirms the need for policies to curb the economic costs of the pandemic


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Authors retain copyright. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Depositing User: Dr Jeffrey Gow
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Business - School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2009 05:26
Last Modified: 15 Aug 2013 01:28
Uncontrolled Keywords: HIV; AIDS; economic impact; KwaZulu-Natal province; South Africa
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 11 Medical and Health Sciences > 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences > 119999 Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140202 Economic Development and Growth
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140208 Health Economics
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): C Society > 92 Health > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920413 Social Structure and Health
Identification Number or DOI: doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-12-18
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/5966

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