Short-term water demand forecasting for production optimisation

Abstract

This study comprises the formulation of a short-term (24 hr ahead) water demand predictive model using multiple variable linear regression technique for the purposes of production optimisation and water demand management for Toowoomba City Councils Mt. Kynoch Water Treatment Plant. It includes a consumption trend analysis and investigation of the impact of demand management techniques utilized by TCC in reducing water consumption. The results were comprehensive and indicated that Toowoomba's demand is quite strongly affected by maximum air temperature, rainfall and rain-days, moving average demand, 4-day weighted average demand, as well as imposed restriction levels. An attempt to combine rainfall and rain-days into a single variable called rainfall-weighting produced exceptional results given the short duration of data analysed.