An analysis of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions status of Annex I countries: can they meet Kyoto targets?

Abstract

Climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is a global environmental problem. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the subsequent Conferences of Parties (COP) have expressed the urgent need to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol, the third COP, was to be a milestone in that for the first time legally binding caps on GHG emissions were to be set. This study analyses the 1990 and current GHG emissions status of Annex I countries and their ability to meet their Kyoto target. The analysis is based on data published in the UNFCCC websites in October 2007. In 1990, total aggregate emissions, including land use, land use change and forestry, of all 40 Annex I countries was 17,551.2 TgCO2e, which had decreased by 4.6% in 2005. In a “business as usual” scenario, emissions would further decrease to 16,357.70 TgCO2e (or by 6.8%) in 2012. Therefore, this would ensure the collective target of Kyoto Protocol would be— to reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% from 1990 levels during the first commitment period. Despite Australia not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol until December 2007, it surprisingly has meet its Kyoto target. Ratifying the Protocol and introducing domestic and international emissions trading systems will boost Australia’s economy and reputation in the long run.