Global economic modelling: some Australian and New Zealand perspectives: paper presented to the Australia and New Zealand 4th Regional Science Association Conference, Albury-Wodonga, December 2 to December 5, 1979

Abstract

[Abstract]: The economic basis of global models has undergone considerable improvement in the last five years. Case studies considered in this paper have been derived from the use of an existing model of the world economy. These case studies consider some of the economic implications for Australia and New Zealand of the alternative patterns of trade in food, minerals and energy resulting from different trade liberalisation strategies between Australia and New Zealand. These strategies are considered within the context of a particular global scenario evaluated by the OECD using the same model. Two main cases are considered. The first, dealing with a gradual liberalisation of trade between Australia and New Zealand, shows that free trade between these countries could be mutually beneficial. In the second case we see that if New Zealand isolates itself through trade from the rest of the world, while continuing to trade with Australia as in the past, it may lead to a reduced standard of living as measured in consumption per capita terms. Repeated emphasis is made throughout the paper that both the modelling work described here and the results it has produced are of a highly exploratory nature.