Modelling Australian international relationships: an approach though dynamic simulation: paper presented to 'FUTUROLOGY', a Symposium on Methodologies for Social Forecasting, Caulfield Institute of Technology, Caulfield, November 21 to November 23, 1979

Abstract

[Abstract]: In developing a case for the use of dynamic simulation models as a tool of prospective studies, illustrations are drawn from the results of an ongoing exploratory study to assess the utility of global models for prospective analysis within the policymaking framework of government. A global model is used to assess, in a highly exploratory manner, differences in national economic performance arising from a series of postulated trading patterns between Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the East and South East Asia. These patterns are evaluated within the context of a scenario of low economic growth postulated and analysed by a major global research project undertaken by the OECD.