World-Australia modelling: a basis for Australian resources and environmental assessment

MacRae, Don (1977) World-Australia modelling: a basis for Australian resources and environmental assessment. In: 48th ANZAAS Congress 1977, 29 Aug-2 Sep 1977, Melbourne, Australia.

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Abstract

The scope and nature of an exploratory World-Australia modelling project in progress in the Department of Environment, Housing and Community Development is described relative to similar work in Australia. This project is seen as a precursor to a more comprehensive Commonwealth study of the impact of world demographic, trade and associated change on Australia's environment and natural resources aimed at developing an analytical framework within the political process, which will guide long-term policy decisions of global-national significance. Possible roles for policy-makers, policy analysts and modellers in developing and using these models are examined. A rationale for the exploratory project emphasizes the significance of being in a position to use overseas developments, the benefits resulting from modelling and the basis that would be created for simulating the dialogue between policy analysts currently developing a wide range of national models. Other aspects considered relate to the developing usefulness of these models overseas, getting around the objections to the high levels of aggregation used, the problem of validation and allowing for uncertainty in model parameters. The project is based on world model developments made by the UK Department of Environment and is compared with other World-Australia modelling projects which are based on the M.I.T. models and the large scale model developed by Mesarovic and Pestel. Central to the proposals for involving policy-makers as well as policy analysts in the World-Australia modelling process is the role that they might play in specifying the structure of the model and scenarios to be evaluated. The resulting benefits that might be produced by this dialogue are considered at length.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: At head of cover title : 'Australian Resources and Environmental Assessment (AREA) Model. A study by the Department of Science and the Environment in consultation with Commonwealth departments and agencies.' Scan of published version deposited with permission of publisher.
Depositing User: epEditor USQ
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Business - Department of Accounting
Date Deposited: 19 Feb 2008 01:54
Last Modified: 05 Sep 2013 04:50
Uncontrolled Keywords: world model; World-Australia model; Australian; resources; environment; environmental assessment; environmental impact; trade
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services > 1503 Business and Management > 150308 International Business
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): C Society > 94 Law, Politics and Community Services > 9402 Government and Politics > 940204 Public Services Policy Advice and Analysis
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/3869

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