An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Shi, G. and Ribbe, J. and Cai, W. and Cowan, T. (2008) An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (2). L2072. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows; these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an El Nino-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate along Australia’s east coast, however, the rain-reducing impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Nino- Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Author version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Depositing User: Dr Joachim Ribbe
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2008 02:47
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 22:57
Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall; Australia; El Nino Southern Oscillation; ENSO; Southern Annular Mode; Indian Ocean Dipole; climate change; Tasman Sea
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
08 Information and Computing Sciences > 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing > 080110 Simulation and Modelling
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
Identification Number or DOI: doi: 10.1029/2007GL032436
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/3760

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