Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance

Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger (2005) Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, 360 (1463). pp. 2109-2124. ISSN 0962-8436

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Abstract

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Output from paper and associated Royal Society conference provided key input into the subsequent meeting of the 'G8 Summit, Gleneagles, Scotland, 2005. Deposited in accordance with copyright policy of publisher. Please use the published version at the above URL
Depositing User: Professor Roger Stone
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2007 01:13
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2013 22:46
Uncontrolled Keywords: operational seasonal forecasting; simulation modelling; crop management systems; decision-making systems; interdisciplinary approaches
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070301 Agro-ecosystem Functionand Prediction
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960999 Land and Water Management of Environments not elsewhere classified
Identification Number or DOI: doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1753
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/2699

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