Predictive modeling of riparian woodland response to altered and novel disturbances in multi-use production landscapes

Abstract

Balancing competing demands of water supply, flood mitigation and environmental health in complex socio-ecological systems such as multi-use floodplain landscapes is a major policy and management challenge; this is particularly the case in regions where land and water resources are highly contested and likely to become more so under an uncertain climate future. Native ecosystem responses to altered disturbance regimes driven by development and over-arching climate change can signal critical shifts in the resilience of such landscapes and their capacity to continue to provide important ecosystem services. As such they provide a robust test of current policy and management approaches.