Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data

Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid and Alam, Khorshed and Gow, Jeff (2012) Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data. Agricultural Systems, 112. pp. 11-16. ISSN 0308-521X

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the yield of three major rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman and Boro) and three main climate variables (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall)for Bangladesh. We use time series data for the 1972–2009 period at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate variables and rice yield using both the ordinary least squares and median (quantile) regression methods. The findings of this study confirm that climate variables have had significant effects on rice yields but that these effects vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature is statistically significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro rice. Minimum temperature has a statistically significant negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Boro rice. Finally, rainfall has a statistically significant effect on Aus and Aman rice. Nonetheless, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced compared with that of rainfall. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties, particularly for Aman and Boro rice.


Statistics for USQ ePrint 21983
Statistics for this ePrint Item
Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Permanent restricted access to published version due to publisher copyright policy (Elsevier).
Depositing User: Dr Khorshed Alam
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Business and Law - School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Date Deposited: 23 Sep 2012 05:22
Last Modified: 22 Jul 2014 04:36
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bangladesh, climate change, rice yield, time series analysis
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140201 Agricultural Economics
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
14 Economics > 1401 Economic Theory > 140104 Microeconomic Theory
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140305 Time-Series Analysis
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9102 Microeconomics > 910209 Preference, Behaviour and Welfare
D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures
Identification Number or DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/21983

Actions (login required)

View Item Archive Repository Staff Only