Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - what's driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?

Stone, Roger C. (2011) Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - what's driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade? In: Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) Adviser Update 2011, 2-3 Mar 2011, Goondiwindi, Australia.

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Abstract

Although there are many climate patterns and systems that exist at widely varying time scales, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon remains recognised as the core driver of climate variability in eastern Australia. The term 'ENSO' is also intended to include the now infamous La Nina pattern. Climate forecasts available for the northern cropping region, such as those based on or similar to the 'SOI-phase system', have been demonstrated to provide significant and relatively high skill when verification tests have been applied to assess all those forecasts in real-time over the past 10 years. Other climate forecast systems, especially those that also utilise Indian Ocean inputs, tend to provide less skill for a region such as the northern cropping region but otherwise provide high skill in regions such as Western Australia. New developments in general circulation model (GCM) forecasts (whether they are produced in Australia or in other countries) suggest enhanced and useful forecast skill for seasonal and longer time periods for the northern cropping region in the future. With further development and testing, GCM forecast systems may provide increased lead time and greater forecast accuracy than currently applied statistically-produced systems.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: No evidence of copyright restrictions preventing deposit.
Depositing User: epEditor USQ
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - No Department
Date Deposited: 25 Jun 2012 02:50
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2013 00:55
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate forecasting; accuracy; short term; medium term; northern grains region
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 01 Mathematical Sciences > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences > 0703 Crop and Pasture Production > 070301 Agro-ecosystem Functionand Prediction
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/20221

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