Dating the 'world business cycle'

Banerji, Anirvan and Layton, Allan P. and Achuthan, Lakshman (2012) Dating the 'world business cycle'. Applied Economics, 44 (16). pp. 2051-2063. ISSN 0003–6846

Abstract

By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international – or 'world' – recession. But what exactly is a 'synchronized world recession'? This article proposes a practical definition of a 'synchronized world recession' and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a 'world business cycle chronology'. Further, using a constructed 'world coincident index of economic indicators' and an associated 'world leading index of economic indicators', this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).


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Item Type: Article (Commonwealth Reporting Category C)
Refereed: Yes
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Available online: 08 Apr 2011. Permanent restricted access to published version due to publisher copyright policy.
Depositing User: Prof Allen Layton
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Business and Law - No Department
Date Deposited: 10 Mar 2012 09:09
Last Modified: 17 Jul 2014 05:58
Uncontrolled Keywords: world business cycle; synchronisation; business cycle dating; forecasting business cycles; synchronized international recession
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services > 1503 Business and Management > 150308 International Business
14 Economics > 1402 Applied Economics > 140202 Economic Development and Growth
14 Economics > 1403 Econometrics > 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): B Economic Development > 91 Economic Framework > 9102 Microeconomics > 910206 Market-Based Mechanisms
Identification Number or DOI: doi: 10.1080/00036846.2011.558479
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/19109

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