Donald, Alexis and Meinke, Holger and Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim (2004) Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management. In: 4th International Crop Science Congress, 26 September - 01 October 2004, Brisbane, Australia.
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[Abstract]: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon first recognised in the early 1970s. The MJO, also commonly known as the 40-day wave, develops over the Indian Ocean and then travels east across the tropics at 5-10 m/s. With a timescale ranging from 30 to 60 days, the MJO has a frequency of 6-12 events per year. In its active stage, the MJO is associated with increased convective activity. Trailing the active centre is region of suppressed convective activity and mean surface level westerly winds. Statistical analysis shows that the MJO can influence rainfall in Australia and elsewhere in the world, beyond the tropics. As MJO forecasting tends to bridge the gap between synoptic and seasonal forecasting, the potential for on-farm risk management is significant.
|Item Type:||Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Paper)|
|Additional Information:||Individual authors retain copyright.|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Madden Julian Oscillation, risk management, climate forecasting, climate variability, tropical atmosphere|
|Fields of Research (FOR2008):||04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes|
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
|Subjects:||260000 Earth Sciences > 260600 Atmospheric Sciences > 260602 Climatology (incl. Palaeoclimatology)|
|Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008):||UNSPECIFIED|
|Deposited On:||11 Oct 2007 10:36|
|Last Modified:||25 Jun 2012 12:15|
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