Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management

Donald, Alexis and Meinke, Holger and Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim (2004) Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management. In: 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet, 26 Sep-1 Oct 2004, Brisbane, Australia.

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Abstract

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon first recognised in the early 1970s. The MJO, also commonly known as the 40-day wave, develops over the Indian Ocean and then travels east across the tropics at 5-10 m/s. With a timescale ranging from 30 to 60 days, the MJO has a frequency of 6-12 events per year. In its active stage, the MJO is associated with increased convective activity. Trailing the active centre is region of suppressed convective activity and mean surface level westerly winds. Statistical analysis shows that the MJO can influence rainfall in Australia and elsewhere in the world, beyond the tropics. As MJO forecasting tends to bridge the gap between synoptic and seasonal forecasting, the potential for on-farm risk management is significant.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Commonwealth Reporting Category E) (Poster)
Refereed: No
Item Status: Live Archive
Additional Information: Individual authors retain copyright.
Depositing User: Dr Joachim Ribbe
Faculty / Department / School: Historic - Faculty of Sciences - Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2007 00:36
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2013 05:17
Uncontrolled Keywords: Madden Julian Oscillation; risk management; climate forecasting; climate variability; tropical atmosphere
Fields of Research (FOR2008): 04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes
04 Earth Sciences > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology
04 Earth Sciences > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl.Climate Change Processes)
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO2008): D Environment > 96 Environment > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather
URI: http://eprints.usq.edu.au/id/eprint/1140

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